US trade policy continues to create uncertainty for Sweden’s export industry
Recurring discussions in the United States about trade tariffs have once again put Sweden’s export industry in the spotlight. Although President Donald Trump has, for the time being, withdrawn the threat of new tariffs against Europe, the situation highlights how quickly trade policy conditions can change – and the questions this raises for Swedish export companies.
When Minister for Employment Johan Britz previously invited the export industry to talk on the situation, it became clear that the issue is not only about concrete decisions here and now, but about how Swedish exports can navigate an increasingly unpredictable trade policy landscape.
Uncertainty rather than immediate effects
In recent months, US trade policy has been characterised by strong statements, followed by adjustments and withdrawn proposals. The most recent tariff threat – which according to reports could have meant tariffs of up to 25 per cent – is currently on hold. At the same time, there is a broad expectation that the issue could resurface, in other contexts or at short notice.
For Sweden’s export industry, it is precisely this uncertainty that is most tangible. Even in the absence of actual tariffs, companies with long business cycles, complex supply chains and major investments are affected when the rules of the game appear to be shifting. As the Minister for Employment has previously put it, the situation is not about fear, but about preparedness.
Preparedness and flexibility in focus
The government has pointed out that experiences from previous crises – such as the financial crisis and the pandemic – demonstrate the value of having tools ready, even if they do not need to be used. Measures such as short-time work schemes are mentioned as examples of instruments that can be activated if needed, rather than as signs that the situation is already acute.
For export companies, the current situation means that business decisions need to be taken with greater risk awareness. Pricing, contracts and investment plans are affected when trade policy becomes a source of uncertainty, even if no new tariffs are introduced.
US–EU relations under scrutiny
Beyond the direct effects on individual companies, developments in the relationship between the United States and the EU are being closely monitored. Discussions within the EU on possible countermeasures, as well as legal challenges in the US regarding the president’s authority to impose tariffs, contribute to a complex situation.
If trade policy tensions were to deepen, there is also a risk that previous agreements between the US and the EU could come under pressure, which would further affect companies engaged in transatlantic trade.
What does this mean for Swedish export companies?
At present, the situation is less about immediate consequences and more about managing recurring uncertainty. This place demands on flexibility, forward planning and cooperation between companies, financial actors and the state.
Sweden is a small, open economy with a strong dependence on exports. When trade policy once again becomes a tool in geopolitical negotiations, predictability and long-term rules become crucial for companies to be willing to invest, grow and compete internationally.
CEO interview
Questions on the situation for export companies
Against the backdrop of trade policy uncertainty, we asked our CEO, Magnus Montan, a few questions about how he views the situation for Swedish export companies.
1) How do you assess the current situation for Swedish export companies after the tariff threat has temporarily been withdrawn?
- Uncertainty remains, even when concrete threats are paused – and uncertainty is a cost for export companies.
- It is wise to take the signals seriously, without drawing premature conclusions before actual decisions are taken.
- Swedish exports remain strong, but rapidly changing conditions affect both investments and business decisions.
2) What are the main challenges if uncertainty persists over time?
- Shorter planning horizons affect investments, orders and supply chains.
- Pricing and contracts become more complex when the risk of tariffs needs to be factored in.
3) Are there also opportunities in a more fragmented trade landscape?
- Companies that can adapt quickly can strengthen their position.
- Swedish solutions in technology and transition are becoming increasingly important as demand grows for robust and reliable suppliers.
- Diversification of both markets and production can strengthen competitiveness over time.
4) What is most important for companies and decision-makers to focus on right now?
- Risk management and flexibility, without losing sight of the long-term perspective.
- For Sweden, it is essential to continue to safeguard open markets, predictability and a well-functioning trading system.
Trade policy has once again become a central risk factor for export companies. Even when threats are withdrawn, they can quickly return – making preparedness, cooperation and long-term thinking crucial for Swedish exports and competitiveness.