In the spring survey, 21 percent of participating companies expect higher financing over the next 12 months, while 71 percent believe financing costs will remain unchanged. Last fall, there was near unanimous agreement that financing would become cheaper during 2025. At that time, 56 percent believed costs would decrease, and only 8 percent expected financing to become more expensive.

This shift is also reflected in the index, which fell from 74 last fall to 44 in the spring Export Credit Trends Survey. The index has an inverse scale, so the decrease means that more export companies now expect financing costs to rise in the future.

“There has been a huge change. Companies thought last fall that financing would become less expensive, but now they see prices staying steady or even increasing. The Riksbank’s message during the spring has been that it is prepared to raise interest rates if inflation developments require it,” says Erik Hådén, Head of Investor Relations and Macroeconomic Analysis at SEK.

The Riksbank’s rhetoric is closely linked to turmoil in the financial markets following the US administration’s announcement of higher tariffs. Higher tariffs affect inflation, and if it rises, the Riksbank may need to raise its policy rate.

The Export Credit Trends Survey was conducted during April. Since then, the Riksbank has indicated that monetary policy could ease going forward, which instead opens the door for a modest interest rate cut.

“Companies in the survey expect financing costs to rise, but the picture may have changed after the latest inflation data came in lower than expected. This reflects how quick things can turn; a 0.25 percentage point rate cut is now considered possible for the Riksbank,” says Erik Hådén.

The Export Credit Trend Survey will be released in its entirety in June.