Short-term interest rates remain unchanged – but what does a higher overall interest-rate environment mean for Swedish exports?
In September, the Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. At the same time, it raised its policy-rate forecast significantly and signalled that rates could begin to rise as early as November. Meanwhile, longer-term interest rates have risen sharply in global capital markets.
For Swedish export companies, this means a changing financing landscape. What does it mean for investment, financing and competitiveness?
A new interest-rate environment is emerging
In September, the Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. At the same time, it raised its policy-rate forecast significantly and signalled that rates could begin to rise as early as November. Meanwhile, longer-term interest rates have risen sharply in global capital markets.
For Swedish export companies, this means a changing financing landscape. What does it mean for investment, financing and competitiveness?
A new interest-rate environment is emerging
When the Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent on 24 September, it was not the decision itself that attracted the most attention. It was the signal about what comes next.
The Riksbank’s new forecast shows an average policy rate of 1.85 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2.07 per cent in the first quarter of 2027. Its assessment is that a stronger Swedish economy, a weaker krona and higher energy prices will contribute to rising inflation. If developments continue in line with the Riksbank’s forecast, interest rates are expected to begin rising this year.
For export companies, this means planning their operations in an environment where financing costs are rising again.
“As far as Sweden is concerned, what matters is not only where interest rates are today. The Riksbank’s new policy-rate forecast shows that the conditions ahead will change. For companies planning investments and major export transactions, it will become increasingly important to allow for a more variable and higher interest-rate environment,” says Erik Hådén, Head of Investor Relations and Macroeconomic Analysis at SEK.
Financing strategy is becoming more important
A higher interest-rate environment affects the cost of financing investments. For companies with major investment projects and long time horizons, even relatively small changes in interest rates can affect the business case.
At the same time, interest rates are only one part of the financing picture. In addition to maturities, companies need to consider currencies, liquidity and how their financing is structured over time.
“When interest rates rise, financing strategy becomes even more important. It is not about trying to predict exactly where interest rates will be, but about building a financing structure that works under different scenarios. Companies with long-term investment plans need room to act even if market conditions change,” says Erik Hådén.
Global interest rates also have an impact
Swedish interest rates are far from the only factor that matters to large Swedish companies, as they operate in global capital markets where developments in the United States in particular have a significant impact.
This autumn, yields on US Treasury securities have risen sharply. In early October, the yield on the US ten-year Treasury note exceeded 5.3 per cent, its highest level since 2007. Higher long-term interest rates in the United States contribute to higher financing costs in other markets as well.
Developments are being driven by several factors, including inflation expectations, energy prices and investors’ view of—or rather concern about—the size of the US national debt. Ahead of the US midterm elections in November, there is also uncertainty surrounding future fiscal policy and the large budget deficit now in place. For companies, the principal relevance lies in the effects on interest rates, currencies and capital markets.
“Swedish companies need to view financing from a global perspective. It is therefore important to follow both central bank actions and developments in long-term interest rates in global capital markets,” says Erik Hådén.
The krona is another part of the equation
Interest rates and currencies are closely connected. The Riksbank expects the krona to remain relatively weak in the short term, but to strengthen further ahead. For companies with sales, costs and financing in several currencies, currency movements may therefore have a significant impact on the overall financing picture.
“The krona is an important part of the equation for export companies. A weak krona can support competitiveness, but it also affects the cost of imported inputs. Companies therefore need to view interest rates, currencies and costs as parts of the same whole,” says Erik Hådén.
Higher interest rates do not change investment needs
A higher interest-rate environment may make some investments less attractive in the short term. At the same time, major structural investment needs do not disappear simply because financing costs rise.
Energy supply, electrification, digitalisation, defence and other critical infrastructure will require investment for many years to come. For Swedish export companies, these developments may both create new markets and increase the need for investment in their own operations.
At the same time, the Riksbank has raised its forecast for Swedish GDP growth and describes the economy as stronger than previously expected. This means that the higher interest-rate environment is emerging from an economy that has strengthened in several areas.
“A higher interest-rate environment does not necessarily mean that companies stop investing. Rather, it is a question of which investments are strategically important and how they are financed,” says Erik Hådén.
What does this mean for Swedish exports?
Swedish exports are affected by developments in major export markets. When interest rates rise, investment and demand may weaken, while changes in currencies and financing costs affect the competitiveness of Swedish companies.
However, a changing interest-rate environment is not only about slowing down. For companies planning investments over several years, the question is instead how to create sufficient flexibility in their financing to be able to act when market conditions change.
An interest-rate environment to plan for
The Riksbank’s decision in September left the policy rate unchanged. But its policy-rate forecast shows that conditions have changed. At the same time, developments in global capital markets have made longer-term interest rates an increasingly important factor for companies planning their financing. The Riksbank’s own policy-rate forecast is an assessment, not a promise, and may change as new economic conditions emerge.
For Swedish export companies, this means weighing several factors together: interest rates, currencies, inflation, demand and long-term investment needs.
“Swedish exports operate in a global environment where conditions are now changing rapidly. The rise in interest rates we have seen in recent months is extreme and will affect the profitability of several investments and, ultimately, will unfortunately halt or delay a number of projects,” concludes Erik Hådén.